Timing and takeoff (75-80)

distinguishing three different transition scenarios to superintelligence:

Slow Takeoff

• over long period of time
• gives the possibility for politics, society and adjacent fields of science to adapt and react e.g. negotiation treaties and protection mechanisms

Fast Takeoff

• over a short period of time
• "nobody need even notice anything before the game is already lost."
• preparations have to be put into place in advance

Moderate Takeoff

• intermediate time intervals
• might offer a chance to respond but not much to analyse the situation
• could lead to geopolitical turbulence as people try to gain from intelligence explosion
• can lead to small groups with disproportionally large influence

Approximations about takeoffs

rate of intelligence = optimisation power / recalcitrance

def recalcitrance: inverse of responsiveness (how hard is the intelligence level to improve), differs for each path to superintelligence during the different phases of takeoff

Optimisation Power (89-94)

def: amount of work put into achieving the final goal; can be put from the outside (e.g. programmers, scientists) or can over time come from inside a highly developed system then optimising itself

optimisation power will most likely improve through transition phase due to human intention of reaching superintelligence as goal and later by the capability of an advanced system improving itself. this makes fast or moderate takeoff likely.